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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010926
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
526 AM EDT TUE SEP 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE ONGOING FORECAST WILL START TO FEEL A BIT LIKE A BROKEN RECORD
AS VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF SEPTEMBER. DEWPOINTS THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS ALLOWING FOR
BOUNDARY LAYER SATURATION NEAR AREA RIVER VALLEYS AND OTHER BODIES
OF WATER. THIS IS ALLOWING FOR SOME FOG...WHICH SHOULD DISSIPATE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE.

OTHERWISE...AN EXCEEDINGLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO RESIDE
ESSENTIALLY ALONG THE OHIO VALLEY AS AN AMPLIFYING AND EXTREMELY
POSITIVELY-TILTED UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES.
AS THIS UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND LOSE DEFINITION
AS THE BASE OF IT TRANSITS THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.

THOUGH AMPLE INSTABILITY RESIDES OVER THE REGION...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DO NOTE SOME LIMITED ABILITY FOR VERTICAL MASS TRANSIT PAST ABOUT
12 KFT DUE TO WARM AIR ALOFT. THAT SAID...A SOUPY BOUNDARY LAYER
AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW INTO THE RIDGES MAY ALLOW FOR JUST ENOUGH
INITIATION FOR UPDRAFTS TO BUMP PAST 12 KFT. SOME LOW END POPS
WERE CARRIED ALONG THE RIDGES FOR THIS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE BULK OF THE CWA SHOULD REMAIN DRY TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE BACK TOWARD THE BASE OF THE
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE IN OHIO...WHERE VERY LOW END SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS WERE CARRIED DURING THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES LOOK TO GENERALLY BE PERSISTENCE PLUS A DEGREE OR TWO
DUE TO A BIT OF A WARMER START TO THE DAY TODAY. AMPLE SUNSHINE
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR MID 80S TO LOWER 90S TO BE WIDESPREAD BY
AFTERNOON WITH HIGH HUMIDITY AND VERY LITTLE VENTILATION. FRIES

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOSED AN CUT-OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY OVER ILLINOIS WILL
FINALLY DISLODGE AND DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD EVENTUALLY GETTING
ABSORBED BACK INTO THE LARGE SCALE FLOW PATTERN. AS THE LOW OPENS
AND CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY...ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE
UPPER-RIDGE...SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE BROAD UPPER-RIDGE REMAINS...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL OCCUR DAILY FOLLOWING A DIURNAL PATTERN
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW
FRIDAY WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO ADVECTING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE EAST TO
WEST FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC. RAISED POPS FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF PENNSYLVANIA/WEST VIRGINIA/MARYLAND. WITH THE
PATTERN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY...ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THAT WILL DOMINATE THE WEEK.
TAX

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STOUT UPPER-RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO FLOP EASTWARD AS A NW CONUS LOW
DEEPENS AND MOVES EASTWARD. THE PINNACLE OF THE RIDGE WILL BREAK OFF
AND CENTER DIRECTLY OVER OUR REGION TOWARDS THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEKEND. THIS WILL QUELL THE DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES...AND KEEP
TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE GREAT
LAKES TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...BUT AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS
POISED TO DO LITTLE MORE THAN FLATTEN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW.
TAX

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOME MVFR FOG AROUND MOST SITES AND LOCAL IFR AROUND KFKL AND
KDUJ FOG IS EVIDENT EARLY THIS MORNING. ALL OF IT SHOULD DISSIPATE
BY AROUND 14Z...WITH VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THEREAFTER. LIGHT
WIND WILL BE PRESENT OVER ALL SITES.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...
GENERAL VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SOME RESTRICTIONS
POSSIBLE DURING MORNING FOG AND ISOLATED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEK.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather