The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions


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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 010944
AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
544 AM EDT WED OCT 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY...DRY AND WARM WEATHER IS
EXPECTED UNTIL THE PASSAGE OF A FRIDAY COLD FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LLVL MOISTURE CONTS TO ALLOW FOR FG/ST AND THIS WL CONT
INTO THE MRNG BEFORE SFC HEATING INITIATES SOME MXG. WEBCAMS
INDICATE DENSE FG NOT WDSPRD ENOUGH FOR AN ADVY ATTM...BUT WL CONT
WITH AN SPS TO HIGHTEN AWARENESS OF THE FG. WATER VAPOR STLT AND
UPR AIR CHARTS SHOW AN UPR LOW SPINNING ACRS WRN PA. THE LOW WL
BEGIN A SLOW EWD EXIT LTR TDA. THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW WL KEEP
ISOLD SHWRS ACRS THE RGN TDA...THOUGH LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND
INSTBY SHOULD LMT PCPN COVG. TEMPS SHOULD CONT A FEW DEG ABV
SEASONAL LVLS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MID AND UPR LVL RIDGING WL BLD INTO THE RGN TNGT THRU THU BRINGING
DRY AND WRM WEA. A CDFNT WL ADVN ACRS THE GT LKS AND UPR OH VLY
RGN FRI WITH SUFFICIENT SPPRT FOR WDSPRD SHWRS. GFS/ECMWF PROGGED
INSTBY FIELDS RMN LOW SO ONLY MAINTAINED A CHC FOR TSTMS...THOUGH
INCRG WNDS ALOFT WL INCR SHEAR VALUES SOME BY THE LT FRI AFTN/EVE
FROPA.

UPR TROFG AND COOL AIR ALOFT BY SAT WL KEEP SHWR CHCS IN THE
FCST...WITH THE BEST CHCS N OF PIT WHERE BETTER MOISTURE/UPR SPPRT
IS PROGGED.

ABV AVG LT WK TEMPS WL DROP TO WELL BLO SEASONAL LVLS BY THE
WKEND.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD AIR ALOFT WILL HELP TO KEEP SHOWERS NORTH OF I-80 SUNDAY WITH
DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. STRONG CLOSED LOW ALOFT WILL
WOBBLE NORTH OF LAKE HURON MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHORTWAVES
RIDING UNDER THE LOW BRINGING PERIODS OF SHOWERS. BY MIDWEEK UPPER
TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH WITH ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES TO START THE
WEEK...MODERATING BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED ON THE BACKSIDE OF CLOSED LOW ALOFT
OVER WRN PA FROM KPIT TO KFKL AND LOOKS TO SPREAD BACK TO KZZV FOR
MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. ELSEWHERE QUITE VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH
VARIABLE MVFR/IFR FOG AT TIMES SOUTH. EXPECT STRATUS AND MVFR/IFR
FOG AT TIMES TO FILL IN ACROSS THE EASTERN TAFS TO THE RIDGES
BEFORE DAYBREAK. AS LOW DEPARTS WEDNESDAY MORNING GRADUAL
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK.../WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED IN EARLY MORNING FOG THURSDAY...OTHERWISE
THE NXT CHC FOR WIDESPREAD RESTRICTIONS WL COME WITH A
FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT CDFNT.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...NONE.
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

&&

$$

07/10
Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather