The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions
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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180910 AAA AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 510 AM EDT FRI MAY 18 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE FOR QUIET WEATHER AND A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... TEMPERATURES HAVE HAD SOME DIFFICULTY DROPPING OFF THIS MORNING AS ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...OBSERVATIONS SITES JUST NORTH OF FOREST COUNTY DO INDICATE DEWPOINTS JUST AT OR ABOVE FREEZING WITH MID 30 TEMPERATURES...SO THERE COULD STILL BE SOME FROST DEVELOPMENT THROUGH SUNRISE. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVERHEAD TODAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...BEYOND SOME CIRRUS BLOWOFF FROM UPSTREAM CONVECTION OVER WISCONSIN...AND A WARMER DAY THAN YESTERDAY. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE FORECAST THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY AS SUGGESTED BY MOST GLOBAL MODELS. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD AND SLIDE TOWARD THE COAST...850MB TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL REACH 16C...WHICH SHOULD HELP TO BRING TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THOUGH CURRENT FORECAST HIGHS ARE SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH LOOKED A LITTLE TOO HIGH. MODEL AGREEMENT THEN DIVERGES INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ON THE TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GROUPING BETWEEN THE NAM/CANADIAN AND GFS/ECMWF. SINCE NOT MUCH HAS CHANGED IN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WITH THE NEW RUNS...OPTED TO CONTINUE THE DRY FORECAST FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...GRADUALLY BRINGING IN POPS FROM BOTH THE EAST WITH THE RETROGRADING LOW AND THE WEST WITH THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT BY LATE MONDAY. THIS WAS CLOSEST TO GFS/ECMWF AND SREF ENSEMBLE MEAN THROUGH THE PERIOD. KEPT TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE AND STILL A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL MONDAY. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... WITH CONTINUED MODEL DISAGREEMENT...MAINTAINED A FORECAST CLOSE TO HPC GUIDANCE WITH HEAVY EMPHASIS ON THE MOST RECENT GFS RUN WHICH BRINGS THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THE FASTEST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. A SURFACE RIDGE PROGGED TO BUILD IN FROM THE MIDWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SHOULD PROVIDE A RETURN TO DRY WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. && .AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OVER NEW ENGLAND. LGT NE SFC WND WL VEER TO THE E ON FRIDAY WITH PROGRESS OF THE HIGH. .OUTLOOK...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR RESTRICTIONS LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ009. WV...NONE. && $$
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
