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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

FXUS61 KPBZ 242152

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
552 PM EDT Mon Oct 24 2016

High pressure will bring dry and cool conditions tonight into
Wednesday. Low pressure will bring showers back into the forecast Wednesday
night through early Friday.


Latest satellite observations are in line with model consensus of
dissipating stratocu over the southwest zones as the evening
progresses. Hence, the aforementioned region is favorable for
frost development overnight as the boundary layer decouples and
radiational cooling lowers temperatures to the low to mid 30s.

Otherwise, cool northwest flow will help continue the stratocu
across the northern counties and ridges through Tuesday with a few
light showers along the I-80 corridor. Building high pressure will
help decrease some cloud coverage later Tuesday. Temperatures will
be about 10 degrees cooler than seasonal averages.


Conditions are expected to be clear and cold under high pressure
Tuesday night. Much of Wednesday will be dry but with increasing
clouds as a warm front approaches in advance of deepening Great
Lakes low pressure. Shower chances will increase Wednesday night,
with likely POPs Thursday as system crosses the Upper Ohio Valley.
The mid level system will close off over New England for a time,
keeping cold northwest flow across the region into Thursday night
with scattered showers.


Brief ridging will dry out the region Friday afternoon, but
another trough will already be approaching from the west for
Saturday. Unsettled weather and cooler than seasonal average
temperatures will hold for the weekend into early next week, as a
broad trough will remain over the eastern CONUS. In general,
followed close to the Superblend guidance for construction of the
extended period.


VFR with occasionally MVFR stratocu in cold advection will
continue through at least the first half of the TAF period. Lake-
enhanced showers will be situated in the vicinity of KFKL and KDUJ
through the remainder of the afternoon but should do little to
impact visibility.

Clouds should begin to scatter out from west to east as a surface
ridge builds overhead and we lose the instability of daytime
heating tonight. However, as the upper trough shifts to the east,
some of the model guidance swings a weak shortwave across the
lakes which may maintain clouds and chances for precip, again
mainly north of PIT. Regardless, VFR conditions should prevail for
much of Tuesday.

W-NW wind with gusts to 20kts will diminish tonight.

The next chance for general restrictions will be with Thursday
low pressure.


OH...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday FOR OHZ039-048-
WV...Frost Advisory from 3 AM to 9 AM EDT Tuesday FOR WVZ004-012.



Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather