The Latest NWS Regional Area Forecast Discussions
Enter the NWS Weather Forecast Office [WFO] Code Below
NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 221413 AFDPBZ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA 1013 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES BRINGS AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...UNTIL A COLD FRONT CROSSES. MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS FORECAST THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AREA IS UNDER GOING STRONG HEATING WHICH IS EATING AWAY AT CAP NEAR THE SURFACE. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS USING PROJECTED MAXT AND TD SHOW 1.5 KJKG-1 OF SBCAPE AND NO CINH. THIS IS ABOUT HALF OF THE ENERGY THAT WAS PRESENT YDY...BUT THE DIFFERENCE THIS AFTN IS INC IN WIND SHEAR AND TRIGGERS. A WEAK IMPULSE WILL CROSS LATER TDY AND GIVEN NO CAP WILL GENERATE RW/TRW. MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...HOWEVER HAIL CAN NOT BE RULED OUT DESPITE FZL LVL ARND 12KFT. TWEAKED POP GRIDS TO REFLECT DRY CONDITIONS THIS MRNG AND FOCUS HIGHER NUMBERS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING TIME FRAME. ACTIVITY WILL WANE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT WITH POCKETS OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH MID LVL HEIGHT FALLS FROM APPROACHING TROUGH...CONTINUED PCPN MENTION THROUGH THE NIGHT. DUE TO PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF STORMS...DO NOT FORESEE A FLOOD THREAT. THE ONLY SCENARIO WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING WOULD BE IF A LOCATION RECEIVES REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAIN. THE PROBABILITY IN THAT IS LOW AT THIS TIME. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLDER AIR IS PROJECTED TO ADVECT OVR THE REGION ON THURSDAY AS SFC FRONT PROGRESSES EWD. HOWEVER... WITH THE MID-LEVELS COOLING AS WELL...CONVECTIVE THRESHOLDS WL LOWER CONSIDERABLY WITH SHWRS AND TSTMS AGAIN BCMG LIKELY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. A REINFORCING FRONT IS PROGGED FOR FRIDAY WITH RESIDUAL SHWR CHCS FADING BY AFTN WITH PASSAGE OF THAT FEATURE. AS NW FLOW DVLPS WITH PASSAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED PHASED TROF AXIS...COLD ADVCTN WL LIMIT TEMP RECOVERY. EXPECT HIGHS ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW THE SEASONAL AVERAGES UNDR THE RESULTING HIGH AMPLITUDE...ERN CONUS TROF PTN. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OF THE CENTRAL CONUS AND TROUGHING IN BOTH THE WEST AND EAST. WHILE THIS WOULD GENERALLY LEAD TO A MUCH LESS THAN CONFIDENT FORECAST IN THE SHORTWAVES WITHIN THE FLOW...THIS DOESN`T SEEM TO BE THE CASE AS BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF SUGGEST THAT MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. THUS...OPTED TO TAKE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND HPC GUIDANCE. ALSO...HEDGED A BIT COOLER WITH TEMPERATURES WITH NORTHWEST FLOW PRESENT ESPECIALLY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD. THIS KEPT TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES SAT/SUN BEFORE MODERATING CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 15-20 KT GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY NOON AT MOST TERMINALS ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON...AND HAVE CONTINUED VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME. IF ANYTHING...WIND GUSTS MAY BE UNDERESTIMATED WITH POSSIBILITY FOR TSRA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR RESTRICTIONS AND WIND ISSUES WILL COME THIS EVENING AS TSTM COVERAGE WIDENS IN A STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE. .OUTLOOK.../THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE THUR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY VIS. OTHERWISE...PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD IFR WEATHER IS LOW. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...NONE. OH...NONE. PA...NONE. WV...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...98 NEAR TERM...98 SHORT TERM...15 AVIATION...33/98
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
