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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271028
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
528 AM EST Thu Jan 27 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow chances return late tonight and Friday followed by mainly dry
conditions and below normal temperatures this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
After a very cold start temps will recover quickly today as sfc high
pressure transitions east of the region and flow becomes
southwesterly. Light snow chances return later this afternoon mainly
N of PIT as shortwave support increases ahead of an approaching cold
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Snow chances will increase tonight ahead of the front progged to
cross the region on Friday. Models have trended with this shortwave
trough to the south with the bulk of the PVA moving into the southern
portion of the forecast area. Model soundings show limited moisture
largely confined outside of the DGZ, so expect relatively light snow
through the period. An inch or less is forecast to the northwest of a
line running roughly from Dubois to the SW corner of PA, and 1-3"
(increasing from NW to SE) where light snow will be more prolonged
and orographic lift contributes in the ridges. A few isolated spots
of 4 inches can`t be ruled out at this time, most likely in Eastern
Tucker county. There is an outside chance for patchy freezing drizzle
overnight if the saturated layer remains to warm for ice crystal
formation. At this time the bulk of latest forecast soundings do not
support this scenario, so have not included in the forecast. Will
continue to monitor for this possibility.

Another bout of arctic air will follow this front with well below
normal temperatures expected through the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry conditions and a warming trend in temperature is expected
through the period with high pressure in control before precipitation
chances return later on Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR is expected through much of the day as high pres moves east
across the rgn. Mid lvl cloud cigs should increase by aftn ahead of
an approaching cdfnt. MVFR in areas of light snow is expected by late
aftn/tonight as lift/shortwave support increase as the front nears.

Lgt S-SE wind should increase from the SW by morning as the sfc high
shifts E.

.Outlook...
Restrictions in areas of snow are likely Fri/Fri eve with a cdfnt and
subsequent upr troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for PAZ007>009-013-
     015-016.
OH...None.
WV...Wind Chill Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for WVZ514.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather