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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 241736
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1236 PM EST Tue Jan 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Scattered light rain and snow will diminish through the afternoon
as low pressure exits toward New England. Mild Wednesday, followed
by colder air and snow showers behind a Thursday cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper low pulling away from the Mid-Atlantic this afternoon, with
deformation zone precip continuing to shrink as it shifts
southeast. Mostly cloudy skies will continue through tonight.

Seasonably mild temperatures will remain through tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will briefly spell dry weather to begin Wednesday,
but another system will bring a return to cooler and wetter
conditions through the end of the week. Wednesday afternoon a
relatively slow moving low pressure system will approach the
western Great Lakes. Deepening of the mid-level low will
strengthen the jet oriented parallel to the cold front feeding
southern moisture along the boundary. This will fuel light rain
showers as the front passes Wednesday night. Models have slowed
the eastward advance of this system through the Great Lakes, and
thus timing of precipitation onset has been pushed back from
previous forecast.

Colder air will spill into the area Thursday morning as the upper
low passes to our north. With current timing, highs should occur
early Thursday and temperatures will fall through the day. Strong
west-northwest flow will further bolster cold air advection. A quick
transition from rain to snow will likely occur Thursday morning.
Conditions will then favor snow showers continuing Thursday night
into Friday. By early Friday, expecting at least some snow
accumulation in the favorable locations (the Ridges, and north of I-
80), but some light accumulations of an inch or less looks possible
areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A broad area of low pressure centered over Eastern Canada
will bring periodic snow chances through the weekend. With timing of
individual waves difficult to pin down, will keep PoPs in line with
SuperBlend numbers. The re-enforcing disturbances will drive
temperatures back down to just below seasonal values through Monday.
A passing ridge could temporarily quell northwest flow late Monday,
but another system looks to arrive from the northwest early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR to low MVFR conditions are expected to persist through
Wednesday morning as low level moisture behind exiting low
pressure maintains a stratus layer. Ridging should return VFR
conditions to the area Wednesday, though ports N of I 80 could see
MVFR continue until just after the end of the TAF period.

.OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected Wed night through Sun with a
crossing cold front and subsequent upper troughing.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather