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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 260405
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1205 AM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible with a weak
Wednesday disturbance before high pressure brings dry weather on
Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Dry weather and mostly clear skies are expected tonight under a ridge
of high pressure.

A weak sfc cold front is progged to drop S across Southern Ontario
to Lake Erie by this afternoon. Most of the upper support with the
front should also stay north of our area, precluding any significant
shower/storm chances. Some isolated storms are still possible across
the Upper OH Valley Region though as convective temperature
thresholds are reached during the afternoon, though a lack of a
sfc boundary or shortwave support should keep coveraged confined to
isolated. Above seasonal average temperatures are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The cold front is expected to stay north of the New York-Pennsylvania
state border into Friday, so this should generally keep conditions
dry. However, it should be noted that the SREF/GEFS both generate
precipitation Thursday afternoon, despite a dry forecast from the
deterministic models.

An upper level shortwave will trigger another chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday. The NAM keeps precipitation well to the north,
while the ensembles again show greater precipitation amounts and
coverage than the GFS/ECMWF. Instability again will be available for
thunderstorms, but wind shear will be lacking for an overall severe
weather threat. Temperatures will continue to be slightly above
normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
An upper level low will drop from Hudson Bay Friday evening to New
England Sunday night, continuing a chance of showers and
thunderstorms across the region through the weekend. Monday should
then be dry before some precipitation moves over an upper level ridge
developing across the central United States. Temperatures will drop
behind the passage of the upper level low.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions are forecast for the TAF period.

Scattered to broken cu will develop with daytime heating. Surface
winds will increase with heating as well. South-southwest gusts of 15
to 20kts are possible during the afternoon.


.Outlook...
No widespread IFR is forecast.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather