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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 240034 AAB
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
734 PM EST Sat Feb 23 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain is expected tonight as low pressure drags a
cold front across the area. Shower chances and very strong wind
gusts are expected behind the front Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
735pm update...Continue to adjust PoPs for the overnight period,
in line with the latest radar trends and current hires model
guidance. Colder air is still holding on in the far NE and over
Garrett county. Will issue separate SPSs for these locations to
cover the risk for patchy freezing rain. Temperatures have been
refreshed with the latest blend of hires guidance.

Previous discussion...

While low pressure is currently over the central Plains,
rainfall will increase tonight as the warm and cold fronts with
the low move into the region. Models continue to back off on the
QPF forecast, with anywhere from 0.40 to 0.80 inches expected
over the next 36 hours. An isolated lightning strike cannot be
ruled out across westernmost counties, although elevated
instability should be rather limited.

The warm front and cold front should move through in quick
succession tomorrow morning, and that is when the winds will
begin to pick up. There will be a very tight pressure gradient,
and with steep low level lapse rates allowing for strong mixing
of winds above the surface, have issued a High Wind Warning for
60 mph wind gusts across the entire forecast area. The time for
highest winds should range from late morning through sunset, and
while warning criteria winds are not expected to persist for 24
hours, the warning was issued for the times that at least
advisory level wind gusts are expected. Widespread rain will
move east shortly after sunrise Sunday, and a chance of rain
showers will persist in most locations throughout the day. Not
only will the cold front bring gusty winds, but it will also
bring falling temperatures through the day, so the leftover
showers should change over to snow by sunset. While temperatures
will rise into the low to mid 50s by Sunday morning, they will
fall into the lower 20s by late Sunday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
This period should be rather quiet with a ridge of high pressure
building into the region, although an isolated shower will
remain possible north and east of Pittsburgh Monday morning.
Temperatures will be about 10 degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A cold front should cross the region Wednesday and Wednesday
night, bringing mostly a chance for snow but also some rain. By
Saturday morning low pressure should be moving across Lake Erie
and sweeping another cold front through the area. After starting
out below normal, temperatures should rise back to near normal
values by Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Brief VFR is expected to continue this evening into the early
overnight at all but FKL/DUJ. Rain will shift into the area from
the west, impacting vis/cigs at ZZV within the next several
hours and spreading eastward thereafter. Widespread IFR/MVFR
restrictions are expected overnight with moderate rainfall.

The frontal passage Sunday morning will decrease rain coverage,
with a chance for lingering light showers thereafter. Wind gusts
will drastically ramp up during the morning and afternoon, with
widespread 40kts expected in the afternoon with potential for
gusts over 50kts at times. Elevated gusts will continue into the
overnight.

.Outlook...
Extremely windy conditions are expected to continue into early
Monday morning.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     MDZ001.
OH...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069.
PA...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076.
WV...High Wind Warning from 7 AM Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for
     WVZ001>004-012-021-509>514.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather