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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

FXUS61 KPBZ 141153

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
753 AM EDT Mon Jun 14 2021

Shower and thunderstorms chances are expected again today with a
reinforcing cold front. Another crossing disturbance will maintain
lower shower and thunderstorm chances Tuesday before high pressure
returns dry weather for mid week.


Most of the changes to the grids this morning were mainly cosmetic.
Lingering fog mainly south of Pittsburgh will burn off by mid-
morning, with sunshine areawide into late morning.

Not much has changed regarding the severe thunderstorm outlook. A
quick peek at the ongoing 12Z PIT sounding shows relatively warm air
aloft that will cut back on eventual CAPE as compared to yesterday.
However, with 50-60 knots of deep shear and mid-level dry air, a
severe risk still exists.

Previous discussion...

Added more patchy dense fog, and issued an SPS, for areas generally
near and S of I 70, where sfc obs and satellite indicated low vsbys.
Previous...A lead shortwave in a developing Ern CONUS longwave
trough, and its associated reinforcing sfc cold front, will approach
and cross the region this afternoon and evening. Increasing shower
and thunderstorm chances are expected through the day with the
approach of the wave/front, and jet driven ascent.

Model progged strong 0-6km shear near 60kt, moderate instability
with a sfc based CAPE from 1000-1500 J/KG, and dry (downdraft
enhancing) mid level air, should result in a risk for severe
thunderstorms again today, though expect less coverage than yesterday
with lower CAPE values. SPC has the area outlined in a Marginal
Risk/Isolated coverage for severe storms this afternoon and evening.
The main hazard is expected to be damaging wind, though large hail is
also possible. Will include this potential in the Hazardous Weather


Showers and thunderstorms should end from W-E this evening as the
front completes its passage and instability diminishes. Another
shortwave rotating through the main trough should return chances for
showers and a few thunderstorms Tuesday, though coverage should be
more sporadic than Monday with less upper jet support and deep layer

The showers should end Tuesday night as sfc high pressure begins to
build under the longwave trough, with dry and cooler than average
weather through mid week.


Dry weather should continue through most of Friday as the longwave
trough exits the E Coast, and ridging builds across the Upper Ohio
Valley region. A trough is then expected to advance from the Upper
Midwest, with shower and thunderstorm chances returning Friday night
and Saturday as it approaches and crosses the region. Low chances for
showers should continue Sunday, mainly S of PIT, as a srn stream
shortwave approaches the Lower OH/TN Valley region. Temperatures
should average near seasonable levels through the period.


Dense fog will linger early in the TAF period for MGW, ZZV, HLG but
should resolve by 14z. VFR is expected throughout much of the day,
until a building cu field this afternoon with thunderstorms that
develop nw of BVI around 18z. These storms will generally move sely
through the early evening hours and could result in damaging wind and
hail at the surface. After rain and storms, terminals will struggle
to improve with plenty of moisture lingering.

Periodic rain chances from passing shortwaves within a developing
eastern U.S. trough may also create intermittent restrictions through
Tuesday. VFR under high pressure is expected mid-week.





Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather