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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

FXUS61 KPBZ 022355 AAA

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
755 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

Drier air and seasonable temperature return tonight behind a
departing cold front. High pressure will maintain tranquil
weather in the region through the Fourth of July.


A cold front is draped across wrn PA this evening, which will
advance swd slowly through the evening. To the south of this
boundary (across primarily nrn WV and far swrn PA), a moist
airmass remains, characterized by dewpoint temp in excess of
70F, while behind the boundary a dry (dewpoint as low as upper
40s) and only modestly cooler airmass is noted.

Showers/isolated tstms still ongoing this evening appear to be
rooted to the ridges and higher elevations. This terrain
dependency likely is the result of capping provided by warm H8
air, with sfc-based parcels outside of the higher elevations
unable to become freely buoyant.

Sfc high pressure will traverse the region on Sunday, supplying
light wind and no expected precipitation. Despite a post-frontal
airmass, temperature will be similar to Sat, but with less


Crossing surface high pressure will provide dry weather and
generally comfortable humidity levels through the daylight hours of
the Fourth. Seasonable temperatures will be in place Sunday as
shallow troughing departs. Temperatures on Monday will begin to warm
as ridging strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley, with
500mb heights climbing over our region in response. Low-level
southwest flow sets up during the afternoon, which will aid in
starting a slow increase in dewpoints. However, those values will
remain around or below 60 degrees in most cases. Also, capping aloft
will suppress afternoon convection chances.


Dry weather should hold on long enough into Monday evening to allow
area fireworks displays to go off as planned. However, vorticity
advection on the periphery of the Deep South ridge, plus an
approaching frontal boundary, will bring at least scattered showers
and thunderstorms back to the area during the night. It appears that
the boundary will struggle to clear the region as it bumps into the
southern ridge, keeping good rain chances through at least the
Tuesday forecast.

Thereafter, the ridge to our south expands/retrogrades to the west
through most of next week.  This will keep our region in a northwest
flow regime aloft, and thus will also keep an active weather pattern
going with rain chances each day.  This pattern has led to severe
weather events in the past, and this possibility will need to be
monitored, pending factors like shortwave timing and available
instability.  Temperatures will not stray too far from climatology
during this period, but humidity levels will add to discomfort at


General VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The
cold front will continue to make slow progress across the region
this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will
fire ahead of it in a more moisture-rich air mass. MGW has the
best chance of being impacted, and elected a VCTS mention. A
brief MVFR/IFR restriction period is possible here if a storm
does hit.

The front will exit the region tonight, and a drier air mass
will arrive. A shortwave aloft will provide some mid and upper
level clouds overnight. These, plus lowering dewpoints, should
prevent most fog formation. Most clouds will depart by mid-
morning Sunday, and high pressure will provide a VFR day with
light north/northwest wind.

Mainly VFR conditions will then be expected into early next
week. The next front on Tuesday will provide the next widespread
restriction chance.






Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather