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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 150532
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1232 AM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain expected through the weekend with the approach and passage
of low pressure. Snow chances return Monday and Tuesday with
cold flow off the Lake Region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Quick update late this evening to bump up hourly temperatures
and make some minor changes to PoPs overnight based off latest
obs and guidance.

Previous...
Rain is still expected to continue developing as low
pressure emerges from the Lower Mississippi Valley and
maintains a pump of warm, moist air over the Upper Ohio Valley
Region.

Forecast rainfall amounts were not changed from the previous
issuance and generally coincide with WPC and OHRFC QPF. The
heavier rainfall is expected Saturday afternoon and evening.
Since the rainfall will persist over an extended period of time,
flooding hazards are not likely. A few isolated creeks may rise
into action stage.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Come Saturday night the upper level low is expected to be positioned
over central Tennessee. Rain will continue to progress, but rainfall
rates will quickly deteriorate as the system weakens.

By Sunday night our region will be on the backside of the upper
level low and northwest flow will dominate; colder air will
gradually make its way into our region. A portions of our
northern counties and areas in higher elevations are expected to
experience a light wintry mix late Sunday/early Monday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Strong northwest flow should maintain snow shower chances in
the regions that usually benefit from lake enhancement. Dry
weather is still expected through mid week under a building
ridge ahead of a Western CONUS trough. Rain chances return
Thursday as an upper level trough advances across the Great
Lakes.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Areas of MVFR/local IFR in rain are expected through the TAF
period as low pressure advances across the TN and OH Valley
regions. In between waves of rain, occasional improvement to VFR
cigs is expected.

Outlook...
Widespread restrictions with periodic rain are expected to persist
through Sunday with the crossing low. Restrictions are possible
Monday with a crossing upper trough.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather