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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

249
FXUS61 KPBZ 212034
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
334 PM EST Wed Feb 21 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Periodic rain chances will continue through Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front is currently crossing the region and will make some
southward progress this evening. The front will eventually stall
out and remain in the vicinity. Southwesterly flow aloft will
keep plenty of moisture in the area, and precipitation will
spread northeastward again overnight. Models are still quite
varied in their depiction of the temperature profile, especially
north of Pittsburgh. The GFS sounding at Dubois shows
temperatures aloft as warm as 6C, which would certainly melt any
precipitation that falls and allow for freezing rain at the
surface. The NAM/RAP show a much smaller area of positive
temperatures in the sounding, implying that precipitation may
not completely melt and snow may remain possible at the surface.
With a lack of confidence in precipitation type due to model
differences, have decided to issue a winter weather advisory for
northern counties, primarily due to the freezing rain and ice
threat. Overall impacts should be somewhat limited by the record
setting warm temperatures that occurred on Tuesday and the
impact that would have on ground temperatures. If surface
temperature forecast is off, cannot rule out the possibility
that additional areas could drop cold enough to allow for some
ice accumulation.

Outside of the advisory area, many locations will receive
anywhere from a quarter inch to three quarters of an inch of
rain overnight into Thursday morning. Computer models show
precipitation shifting east during the afternoon, so conditions
may manage to dry out for a few hours. Temperatures will be
close to average on Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
After a brief dry spell Thursday evening, rain will move back in
from the west with a warm front approaching the region. This
will keep rain in the forecast through the weekend. There could
be hydrologic concerns through the weekend with the amount of
rain in the forecast, but with the heavier rainfall not expected
to move into the region until at least Friday, felt it was
still a touch early to nail down a particular location to put in
an areal flood watch. Highs will be in the 50s and 60s, well
above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Low pressure will move across the western Great Lakes Saturday
night into Sunday and sweep a cold front across the Ohio Valley,
providing some definitive clearing for the local area. This
should allow for a dry forecast from Sunday night through
Wednesday. One more day of temperatures in the 60s can be
expected on Sunday, before temperatures fall to slightly above
normal values for the start of the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will deteriorate the remainder of the day as
moisture aloft increases. MVFR and eventually IFR is expected as
a cold front crosses the area today. More widespread rain will
develop overnight with a chance KFKL and KDUJ could see FZRA
develop shortly before daybreak.

OUTLOOK...
Periodic restrictions are expected through Sunday with a series
of crossing low pressure areas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Dubois set a record high temperature for the day as of 8am,
reaching 65 degrees (previous record high was 60 set in 2016).
Morgantown has approached its record high of 75 that was set in
1874. Other climate sites are currently expected to come up
short of record high temperatures.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for
     PAZ007>009-013>016.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather