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County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 022355 AAA AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 755 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022 .SYNOPSIS... Drier air and seasonable temperature return tonight behind a departing cold front. High pressure will maintain tranquil weather in the region through the Fourth of July. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... A cold front is draped across wrn PA this evening, which will advance swd slowly through the evening. To the south of this boundary (across primarily nrn WV and far swrn PA), a moist airmass remains, characterized by dewpoint temp in excess of 70F, while behind the boundary a dry (dewpoint as low as upper 40s) and only modestly cooler airmass is noted. Showers/isolated tstms still ongoing this evening appear to be rooted to the ridges and higher elevations. This terrain dependency likely is the result of capping provided by warm H8 air, with sfc-based parcels outside of the higher elevations unable to become freely buoyant. Sfc high pressure will traverse the region on Sunday, supplying light wind and no expected precipitation. Despite a post-frontal airmass, temperature will be similar to Sat, but with less humidity. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... Crossing surface high pressure will provide dry weather and generally comfortable humidity levels through the daylight hours of the Fourth. Seasonable temperatures will be in place Sunday as shallow troughing departs. Temperatures on Monday will begin to warm as ridging strengthens across the Lower Mississippi Valley, with 500mb heights climbing over our region in response. Low-level southwest flow sets up during the afternoon, which will aid in starting a slow increase in dewpoints. However, those values will remain around or below 60 degrees in most cases. Also, capping aloft will suppress afternoon convection chances. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... Dry weather should hold on long enough into Monday evening to allow area fireworks displays to go off as planned. However, vorticity advection on the periphery of the Deep South ridge, plus an approaching frontal boundary, will bring at least scattered showers and thunderstorms back to the area during the night. It appears that the boundary will struggle to clear the region as it bumps into the southern ridge, keeping good rain chances through at least the Tuesday forecast. Thereafter, the ridge to our south expands/retrogrades to the west through most of next week. This will keep our region in a northwest flow regime aloft, and thus will also keep an active weather pattern going with rain chances each day. This pattern has led to severe weather events in the past, and this possibility will need to be monitored, pending factors like shortwave timing and available instability. Temperatures will not stray too far from climatology during this period, but humidity levels will add to discomfort at times. && .AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... General VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. The cold front will continue to make slow progress across the region this afternoon. Isolated to scattered showers and storms will fire ahead of it in a more moisture-rich air mass. MGW has the best chance of being impacted, and elected a VCTS mention. A brief MVFR/IFR restriction period is possible here if a storm does hit. The front will exit the region tonight, and a drier air mass will arrive. A shortwave aloft will provide some mid and upper level clouds overnight. These, plus lowering dewpoints, should prevent most fog formation. Most clouds will depart by mid- morning Sunday, and high pressure will provide a VFR day with light north/northwest wind. .Outlook... Mainly VFR conditions will then be expected into early next week. The next front on Tuesday will provide the next widespread restriction chance. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$ Update...Kramar
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
