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County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 240738 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 338 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures today. Crossing low pressure will provide wet conditions Thursday and Friday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... The cold front has made it out of the CWA, taking the remainder of the showers with it. Some stratus/stratocumulus has arrived in the cold advection behind the boundary and continues to linger across much of the CWA outside of southeast Ohio. The remaining low clouds should largely linger past sunrise as low level moisture is trapped underneath a subsidence inversion. The low clouds will mix out later this morning in the strengthening late April sun. The mostly sunny conditions will be fleeting however, as mid and high clouds will increase once again later. Nevertheless, passing surface high pressure and flat mid-level ridging will keep conditions dry. Temperatures will end up near or just above seasonal norms. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/... A weakening shortwave will ride up the Ohio Valley tonight, helping to bow the boundary back northward as a warm front, and inducing enough lift to bring some light rain back to the southern counties by 12Z. Surface low pressure will cross on Thursday, spreading rain across the entire CWA during the day, with likely PoPs appropriate. Models indicate sufficient instability for the mention of scattered thunderstorms, although relatively low CAPE and a lack of significant shear will prevent a severe risk. For the Thursday night/Friday period, we are still watching a northern stream Great Lakes shortwave and a southern stream lower Mississippi Valley disturbance to see how well they phase over the middle Ohio Valley. Models agree on this occurring to some degree, although how well remains in question. Nevertheless, the increase in moisture and possible support from the right entrance region of an upper jet will lead to more rain, and PoPs were raised to categorical Thursday night. Rain will end from west to east on Friday with the passage of a surface cold front and the axis of the resulting phased 500mb system. At this time, it appears the rain will be spread out over a long enough period to prevent any significant high water concerns. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... Dry weather will continue for Friday night and much of Saturday thanks to surface ridging. The next surface low traverses the southern Great Lakes thereafter, bringing rain chances back for Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow aloft will keep the weather pattern active into early next week, with another system approaching for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures overall will be near or just above normal levels. && .AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Intermittent MVFR CIGS are expected early this morning in cold northwesterly flow aloft. MVFR CIGS will prevail at FKL/DUJ through mid-morning, with possible tempo drops to IFR. VFR conditions should return areawide by mid-morning as clouds break. Remaining gusty winds should dissipate by mid-morning, with light/calm wind expected Wednesday evening. .Outlook... Restrictions are possible late Thu and Fri with the approach and passage of low pressure. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
