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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

FXUS61 KPBZ 240738

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
338 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019

High pressure will provide dry weather and seasonable temperatures
today. Crossing low pressure will provide wet conditions Thursday and


The cold front has made it out of the CWA, taking the remainder of
the showers with it. Some stratus/stratocumulus has arrived in the
cold advection behind the boundary and continues to linger across
much of the CWA outside of southeast Ohio. The remaining low clouds
should largely linger past sunrise as low level moisture is trapped
underneath a subsidence inversion. The low clouds will mix out later
this morning in the strengthening late April sun. The mostly sunny
conditions will be fleeting however, as mid and high clouds will
increase once again later. Nevertheless, passing surface high
pressure and flat mid-level ridging will keep conditions dry.
Temperatures will end up near or just above seasonal norms.


A weakening shortwave will ride up the Ohio Valley tonight, helping
to bow the boundary back northward as a warm front, and inducing
enough lift to bring some light rain back to the southern counties
by 12Z. Surface low pressure will cross on Thursday, spreading rain
across the entire CWA during the day, with likely PoPs appropriate.
Models indicate sufficient instability for the mention of scattered
thunderstorms, although relatively low CAPE and a lack of significant
shear will prevent a severe risk.

For the Thursday night/Friday period, we are still watching a
northern stream Great Lakes shortwave and a southern stream lower
Mississippi Valley disturbance to see how well they phase over the
middle Ohio Valley. Models agree on this occurring to some degree,
although how well remains in question.  Nevertheless, the increase
in moisture and possible support from the right entrance region of
an upper jet will lead to more rain, and PoPs were raised to
categorical Thursday night. Rain will end from west to east on
Friday with the passage of a surface cold front and the axis of the
resulting phased 500mb system. At this time, it appears the rain will
be spread out over a long enough period to prevent any significant
high water concerns.


Dry weather will continue for Friday night and much of Saturday
thanks to surface ridging. The next surface low traverses the
southern Great Lakes thereafter, bringing rain chances back for
Saturday night and Sunday. Zonal flow aloft will keep the weather
pattern active into early next week, with another system approaching
for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures overall will be near or just
above normal levels.


Intermittent MVFR CIGS are expected early this morning in cold
northwesterly flow aloft. MVFR CIGS will prevail at FKL/DUJ through
mid-morning, with possible tempo drops to IFR. VFR conditions should
return areawide by mid-morning as clouds break.

Remaining gusty winds should dissipate by mid-morning, with
light/calm wind expected Wednesday evening.

Restrictions are possible late Thu and Fri with the approach and
passage of low pressure.





Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather