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County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 180632 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 232 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Building high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating temperature for the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The only changes needed for the eve update were tweaks to hourly trends. Scattered to numerous light showers over areas north of Pittsburgh are expected to continue through this eve as per passage of the supporting shortwave, best analyzed via thermal mid level troughing. Cold northwest flow upsloping off Lake Erie will then maintain stratocumulus clouds and possibly a few shallow showers as well to the north of Pittsburgh for the overnight. Meanwhile, areas surrounding a Zanesville to Morgantown corridor should experience some clearing and diminishment of wind given a slackening sfc pres gradient. A temperature drop into the mid 30s is thus anticipated along the I-77 corridor, but it appears at moment that wind speed will remain sufficient to preclude widespread frost formation in that area. A "patchy frost" mention was thus included, but an advisory does not appear necessary. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Although shower activity should be finished by Friday morning as moisture continues to decrease, the stout inversion will continue to keep enough moisture trapped such that a stratocumulus deck will persist through the morning for much of the region. Clouds will finally break by afternoon as moisture becomes negligible and 850mb warm advection commences. The sun will help to warm temperatures above the Thursday values, but will remain in the 50s. Dry weather will then continue through Saturday as surface high pressure and an upper ridge cross the region. More of the area could be susceptible to frost come Saturday morning under ideal radiational cooling. High clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon ahead of the next shortwave arriving in the Ohio Valley. Sun and warm advection will help to bring temperatures back toward climatology. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... That shortwave to the northwest will continue across the upper Ohio Valley Saturday night, eventually playing second fiddle to the coastal system which will arrive in the Carolinas by 12Z Sunday. While earlier runs of the ECMWF indicated better phasing of these waves, it now seems to agree with other models in keeping these systems a bit more distinct. Thus, will continue to keep PoPs low for Saturday night and Sunday. Transient high pressure will provide a mostly dry Sunday afternoon and night, with temperature rising several degrees above normal. Another strong upper low will gather strength over the upper Midwest on Monday and lift into Ontario by Tuesday, with a cold frontal passage occurring during that time. Likely PoPs are still appropriate during FROPA. At this time, system/jet positioning do not appear ideal for a big wind-making system, and a period of NW flow precipitation does not appear to be much of a threat. High pressure and drier weather arrive for Wednesday and Thursday, along with seasonably cool temperatures. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... MVFR stratocu at KFKL and KDUJ (VFR elsewhere) will slowly dissipate this afternoon with building high pressure. .Outlook... The next restriction chc is expected with the advance of low pres early next week. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
