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County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 030827 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 427 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Rain chances will continue through Tuesday with persistent low pressure over the region. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A large portion of the area will be in between the stalled trough to the west and the atmospheric impacts surrounding TS Isaias to the southeast, as it begins to move northeastward along the SE US coast. Deep moisture to the north of the tropical low will interact with a quasi-stationary front over VA. Being in this spot, most, if not all, of the area will see an increase in large scale subsidence and drier air. A large portion of the forecast area will remain rain free with the best chance for showers on the western and northern edge of the county warning area this afternoon. The far southeast ridges, in WV and MD, could see a shower this afternoon, but most of the rain in that neck of the woods will be confined to the aforementioned front over the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures in the area of subsidence will warm a few degrees from Sunday thanks to weak warm advection and increased mixing with a decrease in mid clouds. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Models are not in great agreement with the overnight period. The differences arise in how they are handling weak upper level energy moving northeastward on the eastern flank of the crawling western trough. Energy that does approach the area will weaken and be forced northeastward in the tightening SW flow aloft. To find a happy medium, included chance PoPs across the entire region tonight, but the pattern suggests that most of the area will remain dry. The upper trough axis will take all of Tuesday to make it through the region and it will manage to push a weak a cold front through as it passes. Improved rain chances can be expected Tuesday afternoon due to the increase in large scale ascension and low-level forcing. Models are also showing a destabilization of the atmosphere so an isolated thunderstorm cannot be ruled out. Subsidence will once again increase Tuesday night with all of the attention well to our east-northeast as Isaias picks up speed and moves through New England. Any lingering showers over the ridges will end by midnight. Wednesday setting up as a nice day with plenty of sunshine, seasonal temperatures and comfortable conditions. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... Flow aloft will weaken and become more zonal through the end of the week, with sfc high pressure providing dry conditions for much of the period. The exception could be a passing weak shortwave plus diurnal heating and orographic lift across the ridges sparking isolated storms each afternoon. Otherwise, rising heights and increased insolation will see a warming trend into next weekend, with temperature becoming above normal. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Lingering llvl moisture and clearing in eastern Ohio will create spotty MVFR vis until dawn. IFR cigs will most likely linger near FKL/DUJ; our special 06Z sounding has moisture elevated throughout the boundary layer (sfc to 10kft). Areas under heavy restrictions will improvement to VFR an hour or two after sunrise. Isolated shra could develop west of PIT as a trof advances this afternoon, but confidence is not high; swaths of mid level dry air may advance into the Ohio River Valley. VFR will prevail until early morning Tues. Some site restrictions (MVFR to IFR cigs) are anticipated pre- dawn under spotty moist advection near the llvls. .Outlook... Periodic restriction potential will be possible through mid week under that persistent upper trof. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. OH...None. PA...None. WV...None. && $$
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
