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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 201340
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
840 AM EST Wed Jan 20 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Snow showers should taper off by this afternoon behind an exiting
cold front. Dry weather is expected Thursday before scattered snow
showers return Friday with a reinforcing cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The last of the heavier snow showers is now passing through SW PA and
the WV counties and should begin tapering and becoming more isolated.

Elsewhere, some lake/terrain enhancement is likely after FROPA,
though the boundary layer flow is progged to quickly back to the SW
by afternoon. Accumulation of an inch or two is possible N of PIT,
with lesser amounts to the south. The snow should taper off later
this morning through the afternoon as moisture depth quickly
decreases, capping temperature inversions lower, and ridging builds
in. Near steady temperatures are expected today with cold advection.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging should maintain dry weather clear skies to start for Tuesday.
An increase in mid level clouds is expected Thursday as another
shortwave trough crosses Ontario, with pcpn supporting lift and
moisture remaining N of the area.

A reinforcing cold front is expected to cross the Lower Great Lakes
region Friday. Lake and terrain enhancement in cold NW flow could
result in isolated to scattered snow showers Friday and Friday
night. Temperatures are expected to be near or above seasonable
levels through Thursday night, before returning to below average
readings Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Model ensemble solutions indicate ridging, ahead of a Wrn CONUS
trough, should build across the Ern CONUS Saturday through most of
Sunday, with mainly dry weather expected. Warm, moist advection in SW
flow ahead of the approaching trough should return snow and rain
chances to the region Sunday night. The trough is progged to cross
the region early next week, with precipitation chances decreasing
thereafter.

Operational models differ significantly on the details
of the early week forecast. Followed a WPC/National Blend solution,
smoothing out some of these differences.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Sct snow showers will dissipate this morning as a shortwave and the
associated sfc cold front advance east of the region. Dry air, sfc
ridge building and height rises aloft will create a BKN field of high
MVFR to low VFR stratocu through the aftn, with southwest to
northeast clearing expected. Gusty NW wind will dissipate as well as
sfc pressure gradients lax and winds aloft weaken.

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals by tonight, if only
briefly, before moist advection ahead of another shortwave trough
brings a return of MVFR stratus Thursday morning.


.Outlook...
Periodic shortwaves within the eastern U.S. trough will bring bouts
of restrictions and light lake enhanced snow showers through the
early weekend period.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for PAZ074-
     076.
OH...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ510>514.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather