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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 271606
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1206 PM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper low pressure will maintain cool temperatures and the
possibility for an isolated shower or two north of interstate
80 today. Dry Wednesday, before showers, storms, and warmer
temperatures return Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Increased cumulus and isolated showers this afternoon as an
upper trough axis crosses. Any convection will be mainly north
of interstate 80 under the upper cold pool and downstream of
Lake Erie where current water temps are in the lower 70s.

Overnight temperatures will be below normal again as winds
lessen and cloud coverage clears.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ridging will build in over the region on Wednesday. Temperatures
will recover to near normal with mostly sunny skies and
increased warm air advection.

Cloud coverage will increase Wednesday night ahead of an
approaching shortwave in increasingly zonal flow. The mid-level
disturbance will be over the Great Lakes by Thursday afternoon
which will likely lead to the development of showers and storms.
Have included PoPs on Thursday, generally north of PIT, with
likely PoPs over the far north.

Temperatures on Thursday will continue to trend up, and winds
will be gusty out of the southwest as the pressure gradient
tightens.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Models are in general agreement in development of a Mississippi
Valley to Eastern CONUS trough this weekend, although actual
amplitude and shortwaves-in-flow continue detail and timing
discrepancy. The POPS and temperature forecasts are thus close
to climo as per Superblend guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR will predominate. A crossing shortwave trough will support
scattered showers through the day mainly N of PIT. Otherwise,
cumulus and gusty west wind can be expected as low convective
thresholds are realized.

.OUTLOOK...
Restrictions are likely Thursday afternoon into Saturday with
the approach and passage of a cold front.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather