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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

000
FXUS61 KPBZ 180632
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
232 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Building high pressure will bring dry weather and moderating
temperature for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The only changes needed for the eve update were tweaks to hourly
trends.

Scattered to numerous light showers over areas north of
Pittsburgh are expected to continue through this eve as per
passage of the supporting shortwave, best analyzed via thermal mid
level troughing.

Cold northwest flow upsloping off Lake Erie will then maintain
stratocumulus clouds and possibly a few shallow showers as well
to the north of Pittsburgh for the overnight. Meanwhile, areas
surrounding a Zanesville to Morgantown corridor should experience
some clearing and diminishment of wind given a slackening sfc pres
gradient.

A temperature drop into the mid 30s is thus anticipated along the
I-77 corridor, but it appears at moment that wind speed will
remain sufficient to preclude widespread frost formation in that
area. A "patchy frost" mention was thus included, but an advisory
does not appear necessary.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Although shower activity should be finished by Friday morning as
moisture continues to decrease, the stout inversion will continue to
keep enough moisture trapped such that a stratocumulus deck will
persist through the morning for much of the region. Clouds will
finally break by afternoon as moisture becomes negligible and 850mb
warm advection commences. The sun will help to warm temperatures
above the Thursday values, but will remain in the 50s.

Dry weather will then continue through Saturday as surface high
pressure and an upper ridge cross the region. More of the area could
be susceptible to frost come Saturday morning under ideal radiational
cooling. High clouds will begin to increase during the afternoon
ahead of the next shortwave arriving in the Ohio Valley. Sun and warm
advection will help to bring temperatures back toward climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
That shortwave to the northwest will continue across the upper Ohio
Valley Saturday night, eventually playing second fiddle to the
coastal system which will arrive in the Carolinas by 12Z Sunday.
While earlier runs of the ECMWF indicated better phasing of these
waves, it now seems to agree with other models in keeping these
systems a bit more distinct. Thus, will continue to keep PoPs low for
Saturday night and Sunday. Transient high pressure will provide a
mostly dry Sunday afternoon and night, with temperature rising
several degrees above normal.

Another strong upper low will gather strength over the upper Midwest
on Monday and lift into Ontario by Tuesday, with a cold frontal
passage occurring during that time. Likely PoPs are still appropriate
during FROPA. At this time, system/jet positioning do not appear
ideal for a big wind-making system, and a period of NW flow
precipitation does not appear to be much of a threat. High pressure
and drier weather arrive for Wednesday and Thursday, along with
seasonably cool temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR stratocu at KFKL and KDUJ (VFR elsewhere) will slowly dissipate
this afternoon with building high pressure.

.Outlook...
The next restriction chc is expected with the advance of low pres
early next week.

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
OH...None.
PA...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather