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County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA
000 FXUS61 KPBZ 110700 AFDPBZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA 300 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Showers should gradually end this morning with an exiting front. Periodic shower chances will return later today, and continue through mid week, with crossing upper level lows. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... Showers should continue to end from SW-NE this morning as an initial shortwave/sfc occluded front exit the region ahead of low pressure across the Upper Midwest. A partial clearing trend is expected after the rain ends, though clouds and scattered showers should move back across portions of the region mainly W of I 79 this afternoon as the low tracks east toward the Upper Ohio Valley region. Wind gusts from 25 to 30 mph are expected by afternoon with mixing, and a sufficient pressure gradient ahead of the low. High temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees above average. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... The closed low is progged to drift east across te Lower Great Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region tonight and Monday. Ascent and deep layer moisture, along with diurnal convection, should maintain clouds and isolated to scattered showers across the region. Expect the peak coverage of any showers during the day as convective temperatures are met. Shower coverage should diminish Tuesday for much of the area as the low continues its track east, and exits the Mid Atlantic Coast. Shortwave ridging, ahead of another approaching low/trough, should result in mainly dry weather by Tuesday night. A return to more seasonable temperature is expected as the low drifts east across the region. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... Model ensembles indicate the next upper low is expected to track across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region Wednesday and Thursday, maintaining periodic shower chances both days. The upper air pattern is forecast to then become less amplified, as the low exits the East Coast and a trough tracks east from the Western CONUS. This trough is progged to approach the region toward the weekend, with increasing clouds and slight/low chances for showers returning. Below average temperatures are expected under the upper low early in the period, but should recover to above average levels by late week. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High confidence forecast save for brief IFR CIGS /CAT C/ at FKL and BVI through 8Z. In addition, CIGS could be lower than forecast this afternoon as stratocu associated with mid level low pressure advances east. Overall a VFR forecast. Rain will depart the region by 9Z at DUJ then precip free through the day. As spokes of energy rotate overhead scattered showers will develop late this afternoon into the evening from west to east. Did not include prevailing VCSH or precip given confidence is low attm. The main impact today will be the wind. Speeds will pick up by mid morning exceeding the 12kt sustain threshold area wide, save for MGW, which will be close. Meanwhile, gusts will be in the 20kts range. The hilltop airport of HLG could see a brief puff nearing 30kts. Most FM groups account for wind direction changes as we veer from south- southeast to southwest by this afternoon. .Outlook... Scattered showers are possible Sunday night into Monday as the upper low meanders through. A brief drop to MVFR can be expected with the moderate showers. && .PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. OH...None. WV...None. && $$
| Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS | Script developed by: El Dorado Weather |
