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NWS Area Weather Forecast Discussion
County Warning Area [CWA]: PBZ
Regional NWS Weather Office: Pittsburgh, PA

FXUS61 KPBZ 110700

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
300 AM EDT Sun Apr 11 2021

Showers should gradually end this morning with an exiting front.
Periodic shower chances will return later today, and continue through
mid week, with crossing upper level lows.


Showers should continue to end from SW-NE this morning as an initial
shortwave/sfc occluded front exit the region ahead of low pressure
across the Upper Midwest. A partial clearing trend is expected after
the rain ends, though clouds and scattered showers should move back
across portions of the region mainly W of I 79 this afternoon as the
low tracks east toward the Upper Ohio Valley region.

Wind gusts from 25 to 30 mph are expected by afternoon with mixing,
and a sufficient pressure gradient ahead of the low. High
temperatures should be 5 to 10 degrees above average.


The closed low is progged to drift east across te Lower Great
Lakes/Upper Ohio Valley region tonight and Monday. Ascent and deep
layer moisture, along with diurnal convection, should maintain clouds
and isolated to scattered showers across the region. Expect the peak
coverage of any showers during the day as convective temperatures
are met.

Shower coverage should diminish Tuesday for much of the area as the
low continues its track east, and exits the Mid Atlantic Coast.
Shortwave ridging, ahead of another approaching low/trough, should
result in mainly dry weather by Tuesday night.

A return to more seasonable temperature is expected as the low drifts
east across the region.


Model ensembles indicate the next upper low is expected to track
across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley region Wednesday and Thursday,
maintaining periodic shower chances both days. The upper air pattern
is forecast to then become less amplified, as the low exits the East
Coast and a trough tracks east from the Western CONUS. This trough is
progged to approach the region toward the weekend, with increasing
clouds and slight/low chances for showers returning.

Below average temperatures are expected under the upper low early in
the period, but should recover to above average levels by late week.


High confidence forecast save for brief IFR CIGS /CAT C/ at FKL and
BVI through 8Z. In addition, CIGS could be lower than forecast this
afternoon as stratocu associated with mid level low pressure
advances east.

Overall a VFR forecast. Rain will depart the region by 9Z at DUJ then
precip free through the day. As spokes of energy rotate overhead
scattered showers will develop late this afternoon into the evening
from west to east. Did not include prevailing VCSH or precip given
confidence is low attm.

The main impact today will be the wind. Speeds will pick up by mid
morning exceeding the 12kt sustain threshold area wide, save for MGW,
which will be close. Meanwhile, gusts will be in the 20kts range.
The hilltop airport of HLG could see a brief puff nearing 30kts. Most
FM groups account for wind direction changes as we veer from south-
southeast to southwest by this afternoon.

Scattered showers are possible Sunday night into Monday as the upper
low meanders through. A brief drop to MVFR can be expected with the
moderate showers.





Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather