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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 230532
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

A broad area of low pressure associated with the remnants of Harvey
is located over the eastern Bay of Campeche.  Although thunderstorm
activity has increased over the northern portion of the system
tonight, recent satellite wind data indicate that low pressure
area lacks a well-defined circulation at this time.  Environmental
conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression
or tropical storm is very likely to form today or tonight while
the low moves northwestward at about 10 mph across the western Gulf
of Mexico, possibly reaching the northwestern Gulf coast late
Friday.

Regardless of development, this system is likely to slow down once
it reaches the coast, increasing the threat of a prolonged period of
heavy rainfall and flooding across portions of Texas, southwestern
Louisiana, and northeastern Mexico into early next week.  This
system could also produce storm surge and tropical storm or
hurricane force winds along portions of the Texas coast later this
week, and Tropical Storm or Hurricane Watches could be required
later today for portions of the coast of northeastern Mexico, Texas,
and southwestern Louisiana.  Interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of this system, and refer to products issued by your
local National Weather Service office for more information.  An Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is schedule to investigate the
low this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent.

An area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms stretching
across the Bahamas, southern Florida, and the adjacent waters is
associated with a trough of low pressure.  Any development of this
system during the next few days should be slow to occur while it
drifts northward over Florida and the adjacent waters. Environmental
conditions could become a little more conducive for tropical or
subtropical development over the weekend when the system begins to
move northeastward over the western Atlantic.  Regardless of
development, very heavy rain and flooding is possible over portions
of the Florida peninsula during the next few days.  Please refer to
products from your local National Weather Service office for more
information on this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Brown

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 230522
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Kenneth, located about 1500 miles west of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Brown

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Kenneth (EP3/EP132017)
    ...KENNETH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 the center of Kenneth was located near 22.6, -134.0 with movement NNW at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 65 mph.

Tropical Storm Kenneth

  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Public Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 230236 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kenneth Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 ...KENNETH EXPECTED TO WEAKEN STEADILY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.6N 134.0W ABOUT 1535 MI...2465 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kenneth was located near latitude 22.6 North, longitude 134.0 West. Kenneth is moving toward the north-northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this direction of motion with a gradual decrease in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher gusts. Continued weakening is expected, and Kenneth is forecast to become a remnant low by early Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Advisory Number 19
    Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 230236 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 134.0W AT 23/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. 50 KT....... 40NE 30SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 80NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 90SW 105NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 134.0W AT 23/0300Z AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 133.8W FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 134.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Forecast Discussion Number 19
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 230237 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Kenneth Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132017 800 PM PDT Tue Aug 22 2017 Kenneth continues to slowly weaken. The eye feature that was evident several hours ago has filled in, and a recent SSMIS microwave pass shows that the system is now more asymmetric due to southerly shear. A pair of ASCAT passes from around 1800 UTC showed maximum winds in the 55-60 kt range. Assuming some weakening since the time of that data, the initial wind speed is lowered to 55 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with a blend of the latest T- and CI-numbers from TAFB/SAB and ADT values from CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin. Kenneth is over cool 24 deg C waters, surrounded by dry air, and moving toward an environment of even higher southerly wind shear. These hostile conditions should cause the system to keep weakening, and the NHC forecast now calls for Kenneth to become a remnant low in 36 hours. The remnant low will likely only slowly spin down as depicted by the global models. This intensity forecast is largely an update of the previous one. The tropical storm is moving north-northwestward at 10 kt on the west side of a mid-level ridge. This general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days while the system moves into a pronounced weakness in the ridge. By the end of the forecast period, the shallow cyclone is expected to turn to the northwest in the low-level flow. Little change was made to the previous NHC track prediction, and this forecast lies closest to the various consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 22.6N 134.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 24.0N 134.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 25.7N 135.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 27.0N 136.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0000Z 28.0N 136.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 26/0000Z 29.2N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 27/0000Z 30.2N 138.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 28/0000Z 31.5N 140.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
    Issued at 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 230236 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132017 0300 UTC WED AUG 23 2017 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KENNETH WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 22.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 134.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 55 KTS...65 MPH...100 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 135W 34 41 45(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) X(86) 25N 135W 50 2 25(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) 25N 135W 64 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 30N 135W 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) 30N 140W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Kenneth Graphics
    Tropical Storm Kenneth 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 02:40:59 GMT

    Tropical Storm Kenneth 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 23 Aug 2017 03:22:37 GMT ]]>