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Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical Sea Temperatures

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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

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Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 240545
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Sat Aug 24 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal, located several hundred miles west of
the Azores.

A broad area of low pressure located inland over South Florida
continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms that extend eastward over the northwestern Bahamas
and the adjacent Atlantic waters.  Significant development of the
low is unlikely today while it drifts northward over the southern
Florida peninsula.  Environmental conditions appear conducive to
support gradual development once the low moves off the east-central
coast of Florida over the western Atlantic by Sunday, and a tropical
or subtropical depression is likely to form early next week while
the system moves northeastward offshore of the southeastern United
States coast.

Regardless of development, locally heavy rains are possible over the
northwestern Bahamas and the southern and central Florida peninsula
through the weekend.  Interests in the northwestern Bahamas, the
Florida peninsula, and the southeastern coast of the United States
should monitor the progress of this system.  The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system later
today could be postponed if the center of the low remains inland
over Florida.  Another aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
system on Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a small area of low
pressure located about 1050 miles east of the Windward Islands are
showing some signs of organization.  Environmental conditions appear
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend or early next week while the low
moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.  Conditions
appear less favorable for development when the low reaches the
Lesser Antilles and eastern Caribbean Sea by the middle of next
week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Post-Tropical Cyclone Post-Tropical


Post-Tropical Cyclone Chantal

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 240507
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Fri Aug 23 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Storm Ivo, located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the
southern tip of the Baja California peninsula.

An area of low pressure is forecast to form just offshore of the
west-central coast of Mexico near the southern tip of the Baja
California peninsula by the middle of next week. Some development of
this system is possible thereafter while it moves westward or
west-northwestward at around 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

$$
Forecaster Avila

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Ivo (EP5/EP102019)
    ...IVO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... As of 2:00 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 the center of Ivo was located near 21.4, -115.8 with movement NNW at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 996 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.

Tropical Storm Ivo

  • Tropical Storm Ivo Public Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 240831 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Ivo Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 ...IVO CONTINUES TO WEAKEN... ...SWELLS PROPAGATING TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.4N 115.8W ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 AM PDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located near latitude 21.4 North, longitude 115.8 West. Ivo is moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h), and this general motion with a decrease in forward speed is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Ivo is expected to weaken to a tropical depression later today and degenerate into a remnant low on Sunday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) to the south of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Ivo are propagating toward portions of the west coast of Baja California Sur. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 800 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Advisory Number 13
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 240831 TCMEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.8W AT 24/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 120SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..270NE 300SE 210SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.4N 115.8W AT 24/0900Z AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 115.6W FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 100SE 120SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.4N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ivo Forecast Discussion Number 13
    Issued at 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 240832 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Ivo Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102019 200 AM PDT Sat Aug 24 2019 The cloud pattern associated with Ivo has deteriorated significantly during the past several hours, and deep convection is now limited to a small cell near the center. The middle-level circulation and the cloud debris have moved away from the center due to northeasterly shear. Dvorak numbers continue to decrease, and an average of these estimates yields an initial intensity of 40 kt. This is consistent with a recent ASCAT pass which measured one vector of 40 kt in the southern semicircle. The winds have subsided considerably in the remainder of the circulation. Ivo is already moving over increasingly cooler waters. On this basis, the NHC forecast calls for weakening, and Ivo is expected to become a remnant low in 36 hours or even earlier and then dissipate in 2 or 3 days. The best estimate of the initial motion is north-northwestward or 335 degrees at 9 kt, and Ivo should continue on that direction steered by the flow around the subtropical high. A decrease in forward speed is anticipated as the cyclone reaches weaker steering currents. The NHC forecast is not different from the previous one and is almost on top of the multi-model consensus TVCE. Due to the persistent and strong southwesterly flow associated with Ivo during the last few days, high swells are propagating northeastward toward portions of the southern Baja California peninsula as indicated by recent altimeter data. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0900Z 21.4N 115.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 24/1800Z 22.7N 116.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 25/0600Z 24.3N 117.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 25/1800Z 26.0N 117.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 26/0600Z 27.2N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ivo Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
    Issued at 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 000 FOPZ15 KNHC 240832 PWSEP5 TROPICAL STORM IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102019 0900 UTC SAT AUG 24 2019 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 20N 115W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) 25N 115W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 25N 120W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER AVILA ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Ivo Graphics
    Tropical Storm Ivo 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 08:34:21 GMT

    Tropical Storm Ivo 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 24 Aug 2019 09:24:28 GMT ]]>