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Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical Sea Temperatures

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Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

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Current Pacific Satellite Loop

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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


411 
ABNT20 KNHC 030001
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 PM EDT Sat Jul 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Colin, located along the southeast coast of the United States 
near the North Carolina-South Carolina border.

Eastern Caribbean Sea:
A tropical wave continues to produce showers and thunderstorms, 
along with gusty winds, over the eastern Caribbean Sea, Hispaniola, 
Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, and portions of the Leeward 
Islands. Although shower activity has become a littler more 
concentrated, significant development of this system is unlikely due 
to strong upper-level winds. This disturbance is expected to move 
westward to west-northwestward across the Caribbean Sea during the 
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

&&

Public Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued 
under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
Forecast/Advisories on Tropical Storm Colin are issued 
under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Tropical


Tropical Storm Colin

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 022320
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Sat Jul 2 2022

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Bonnie currently located about 160 miles southwest of 
Nicaragua. 

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&

Public Advisories on Bonnie are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP4.
Forecast/Advisories on Bonnie are issued under WMO header
WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP4.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Bonnie (EP4/EP042022)
    ...BONNIE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Jul 2 the center of Bonnie was located near 11.3, -88.0 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

Tropical Storm Bonnie

  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Public Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 648 WTPZ34 KNHC 022040 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Bonnie Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 ...BONNIE INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NICARAGUA COAST... ...WINDS AND RAIN ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...11.3N 88.0W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM WSW OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM WNW OF CABO BLANCO COSTA RICA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The governments of Nicaragua and Costa Rica have discontinued the Tropical Storm Warnings along the Pacific Coast. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the Pacific coasts of El Salvador, Guatemala, and southern Mexico should monitor the progress of Bonnie. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bonnie was located near latitude 11.3 North, longitude 88.0 West. Bonnie is moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn to the west-northwest is expected on Sunday, and that motion should continue for the next several days. Bonnie is expected to continue moving away from Nicaragua and parallel to the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Bonnie is expected to become a hurricane in the next couple days. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Tropical Storm Bonnie can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4 and WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC. RAINFALL: As Bonnie moves out over the Pacific, lingering rainfall associated with the outer bands will produce another 1 to 3 inches of rain across northwest Costa Rica, southwest Nicaragua, and southern El Salvador through Saturday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Hogsett ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Advisory Number 21
    Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 647 WTPZ24 KNHC 022040 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENTS OF NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA HAVE DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS ALONG THE PACIFIC COASTS OF EL SALVADOR...GUATEMALA...AND SOUTHERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF BONNIE. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 88.0W AT 02/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 14 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 20SE 20SW 40NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.3N 88.0W AT 02/2100Z AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.2N 87.4W FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 11.4N 89.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 12.0N 92.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 60NE 20SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.3W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 10NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 13.7N 98.3W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 10NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 30NE 10SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 40SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.3N 88.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Forecast Discussion Number 21
    Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 022041 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022 Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes and recent satellite imagery indicate that Bonnie has continued to become better organized throughout the day. The well-defined center of circulation and prominent banding south and west of the storm's center have persisted for the last several hours. SAB and TAFB both provided Dvorak estimates of 3.0/3.0, providing justification to increase the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory. Bonnie is still moving due west at 270/14 kt, and the track forecast is largely unchanged from the prior advisory. A deep-layer ridge located north of the storm will be the primary steering influence throughout the forecast period as Bonnie turns west-northwestward and is forecast to remain offshore and roughly parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. The official forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids. Although the strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches for portions of this coastline. Some continued strengthening is expected in the next day or two as Bonnie is forecast to move over an area of warmer sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and relatively low vertical wind shear. For this reason, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about two days. The intensity forecast is near the center of the guidance envelope, with some of the mesoscale hurricane models showing more rapid strengthening than the official forecast. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will continue tonight. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are expected. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/2100Z 11.3N 88.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/0600Z 11.4N 89.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 03/1800Z 12.0N 92.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 04/0600Z 12.8N 95.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 04/1800Z 13.7N 98.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
    Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 340 FOPZ14 KNHC 022040 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042022 2100 UTC SAT JUL 02 2022 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BONNIE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 15N 105W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 42(42) 26(68) X(68) 15N 105W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 19(32) 1(33) 15N 105W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 9(14) X(14) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MANZANILLO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) L CARDENAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 2(16) X(16) 10N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 15N 100W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 50(68) X(68) X(68) 15N 100W 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 28(31) X(31) X(31) 15N 100W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) ACAPULCO 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 13(18) 1(19) X(19) ACAPULCO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) P MALDONADO 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) P ANGEL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 11(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) HUATULCO 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 10N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 15N 95W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 5(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) P SAN JOSE 34 1 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 10N 90W 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CLIPPERTON IS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) 10N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 15N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 22(50) 15N 110W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 14(22) 15N 110W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 20N 110W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 18(25) ISLA SOCORRO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) ISLA SOCORRO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) ISLA CLARION 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 15N 115W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 20N 115W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) $$ FORECASTER HOGSETT ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Bonnie Graphics
    Tropical Storm Bonnie 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 20:45:08 GMT

    Tropical Storm Bonnie 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 02 Jul 2022 21:30:24 GMT ]]>