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Tropical Cyclone Activity

Tropical Sea Temperatures

Tropical Sea Temperature Map from WeatherUnderground
Visit Weather Underground Tropical Weather Center

 

Current Atlantic Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Current Pacific Satellite Loop

Satellite loop from WeatherUnderground

 

Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean


NHC Atlantic

Active tropical cyclones in the Atlantic, Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico

 


Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABNT20 KNHC 180526
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential
Tropical Cyclone Sixteen, located over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are issued
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Sixteen are issued under WMO header
WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen (AT1/AL162019)
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Public Advisory Number 3A
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Advisory Number 3
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Forecast Discussion Number 3
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Graphics
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
Local Statement for Mobile, AL / Pensacola, FL
Local Statement for Tallahassee, FL
Local Statement for Tampa Bay Area, FL
Local Statement for New Orleans / Baton Rouge, LA

 

Eastern Pacific


NHC Eastern North Pacific

Active tropical cyclones in the Eastern North Pacific

 


Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook


000
ABPZ20 KNHC 180537
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Octave, located over the southwestern
portion of the eastern Pacific basin.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

&&
Public Advisories on Octave are issued under WMO header
WTPZ33 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPEP3.
Forecast/Advisories on Octave are issued under WMO header
WTPZ23 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMEP3.

$$
Forecaster Latto

Tropical Storm Tropical

  • Summary for Tropical Storm Octave (EP3/EP182019)
    ...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR DAYS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 the center of Octave was located near 9.8, -127.2 with movement W at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Octave

  • Tropical Storm Octave Public Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 180233 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Octave Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 ...TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORMS... ...FORECAST TO MEANDER FOR DAYS OVER THE EAST PACIFIC... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...9.8N 127.2W ABOUT 1455 MI...2345 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located near latitude 9.8 North, longitude 127.2 West. Octave is moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). The tropical storm will likely meander with little net movement for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible tonight and tomorrow, but weakening will likely begin by Friday and Octave is forecast to become a remnant low over the weekend. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Advisory Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 180233 TCMEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.2W AT 18/0300Z AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 9.8N 127.0W FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 9.8N 127.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Octave Forecast Discussion Number 2
    Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 180234 TCDEP3 Tropical Storm Octave Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182019 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Satellite imagery indicates that the cyclone located nearly 1500 mi southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula has become a little better organized. The latest TAFB Dvorak intensity estimate is 2.5/35 kt. Furthermore, late-arriving ASCAT-C data from earlier today showed a few 30-35 kt wind vectors in the northwest quadrant of the cyclone. Based on these data, the intensity estimate is 35 kt, and the system is now Octave, the 15th named storm of the Eastern Pacific hurricane season. The tropical storm unexpectedly accelerated southwestward for a brief period earlier this afternoon, but it has since resumed a slow westward crawl. Octave is caught in a region of nearly zero net steering flow, and is therefore expected to move very little for the foreseeable future. Due to Octave's jump to the southwest, the NHC track forecast has been generally adjusted in that direction, and is based primarily on a blend of the the GFS and ECMWF global models, both of which call for a slow looping track through 120 h. Octave is located in an environment that could support slight additional strengthening, as shown by the statistical guidance, though the dynamical models suggest it has already peaked. Upper-level convergence and a drier surrounding environment are forecast to become inhibiting factors to the cyclone's convection in about 48 h, and it could become a remnant low soon after. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted only slightly to account for the higher initial intensity and follows the intensity consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0300Z 9.8N 127.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 18/1200Z 10.1N 127.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 19/0000Z 10.7N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 19/1200Z 11.1N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 20/0000Z 11.1N 126.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 21/0000Z 10.6N 126.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 22/0000Z 10.5N 127.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 23/0000Z 11.5N 127.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Octave Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
    Issued at 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 180233 PWSEP3 TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP182019 0300 UTC FRI OCT 18 2019 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 10N 125W 34 1 X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 7(12) 6(18) 2(20) 10N 125W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 15N 125W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 10N 130W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) 2( 8) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY ]]>
  • Tropical Storm Octave Graphics
    Tropical Storm Octave 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
    5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 02:35:32 GMT

    Tropical Storm Octave 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
    Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 18 Oct 2019 03:31:23 GMT ]]>